2012 Election Trends

Musings of a political junkie...

A little data mining turned up this interesting trend. After ranking all 50 states and DC by the percentage of adults (25+) holding a bachelor’s degree, it turns out the President won the top 16 states, while Romney won the bottom 12 with the exception of NV. See the attached PDF for details.

The data is the data...

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JP November 15, 2012 at 02:33 PM
Please enlighten us with your interpretation of the data. Those of us that voted for individual liberty, states rights, traditional American values and stand with the Constitution obviously are not as smart as the ivory tower elitists. (or maybe I just missed the indoctrination class while at college)
Hookerman November 15, 2012 at 03:05 PM
Wait a minute... you claim to be for state's rights, yet you favor a constitutional amendment that would ban states from allowing same-sex marriage??? That doesn't fly.
Cal Bacon November 15, 2012 at 04:06 PM
Interesting way to look at the data. I have not seen this analysis before. You should send it to Fox News!
JP November 15, 2012 at 04:19 PM
My specific feelings about gay marriage are irrelevant to my point. Any amendment by nature supercedes a State's right. For example the 14th Amendment supercedes the States' ability to deny citizens due process and their civil liberties. Don't pick a flash point subject and try to have some sort of "gotcha" conversation. What I am specifically interested in addressing is Mr. Nedd's interpretation of how education level correlated to the election results.
Jon November 15, 2012 at 04:50 PM
What I really want to see are charts showing votes by IQ, and votes by Personal Net Worth. Now that would be interesting. Not averaged or grouped across entire states, just at the individual person level.
Hookerman November 15, 2012 at 05:11 PM
I’ll tell you how my point is relevant to the subject at hand JP. When conservatives claim to be for personal liberty and state’s rights, but they continue to support the limitation of women’s reproductive choices and the regulation state’s marriage laws, only an uneducated fool would not see the inherent hypocrisy of this
JP November 15, 2012 at 06:28 PM
Mr. Nedd, of course it is all about you. You are providing a data point and claim that the interpretation is self evident. However, you offer no statistical analysis about the relevance of the point. You do not provide any correlation analysis and you expect us to make some inference that education level is directly correlated to the results of the Presidential election. Your data point about education levels is as valid as predicting the winner of the election based on the results of the Washington Redskins game the weekend before the election as reported in the news media last Monday. (ie they lose the…the incumbent looses) I also get that you are trying to needle those of us that voted for Romney. Its ok. I am comfortable with my vote and my view. Hookerman, I will remain true to my convictions and rise above the name calling. As an individual I believe that you are entitled to lead your life as you see fit. I respect your point of view. The beauty of this country is that we can peacefully coexist. But if you cannot find any balance in your life to recognize that I have a thought out point of view that is not in total agreement with yours but still worthy, then how can you expect our politicians in Trenton or Washington to reach any compromise or strike any balance.
Hookerman November 15, 2012 at 06:38 PM
Oh I don't care what your point of view is on the subjects I mentioned JP. What I care about is when you attempt to legislate your point of view, so that your point of view is forced on everyone else. And BTW, I did not call you any name, so there is nothing for you to rise above.
Woody November 15, 2012 at 06:40 PM
A little video mining turned up this interesting clip. The video is the video. I'm told a bachelor degree was in hand http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpAOwJvTOio
The Stig November 16, 2012 at 06:49 AM
The statistic is meaningless. More useless information from the Nate Silver wanna-be. P.S. One data point from one election isn't a "trend." Go back and look up that definition.
The Stig November 16, 2012 at 06:55 AM
Here's a better statistic - the DJIA has lost 5% of its value since Obama secured the election just over a week ago. Speaks volumes about how all the well educated, rich guys on wall Street think the President will do on leading the country away from the fiscal cliff.
Cal Bacon November 16, 2012 at 10:26 PM
Kevin, Thanks for the idea. I never thought of doing my own “data mining” before. As the old saying goes ”Figures don't lie, but...” we can now pick our own data set to show what we want. Curious about how income related to the vote I found the median household income of each state and Washington, D.C. as compiled by the US Census Bureau. Of the 27 above the national median household income, 23 went for Obama. Alaska was above the national median because of the high cost of living and corresponding high salaries. Utah's vote is self-explanatory. The other 2 were Wyoming and Nebraska. Of the 24 below the national median, 19 went for Romney. I make no claims that I can interpret this data, but I find it interesting.
The Stig November 17, 2012 at 06:24 AM
Still not Greg. Not sure why you think he's the only person in the world who thinks you're a pompous a$#.
The Stig November 17, 2012 at 06:26 AM
That's the only stat that matters. Not sure why you bother to post all the other meaningless "statistics." Four years from now two completely different people will be on the ballot, the issues will change, and everything that you are crowing about today goes out the window. Rule #1 in Politics - Never fight the last war.
The Stig November 17, 2012 at 06:43 AM
You might want to look at an electoral map from 1992. Clinton won most of the states at the bottom of your list, including W. Va, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nevada & Tennessee. Kinda blows your theory that people in the "stupid states" only vote for Republicans. Maybe it's time that you Woke Up. P.S. Nate Silver called, he's revoking your "Silver Wanna-be" status and asked that you stop referencing his columns as you are an embarrassment to the industry. P.P.S. Still not Greg.
The Stig November 17, 2012 at 09:53 PM
Still haven't acknowledged that you were completely wrong about the "trend" going back to '92, and, the fact of the matter is that one doesn't spend as much time as you did researching, performing a statistical analysis, building a table and posting an article without having a point. So stop being so disingenuous about why you wrote the article. It was to make a point.
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